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Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
Container

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

79 items65 ★4 drop odds
Current case price
$3.86−6.3%
Prices & marketplaces →Visit →

Unbox simulator

Real odds, real sounds — zero real money
incl. $2.49 key
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Returned$0.00
Net+$0.00
Statistical simulation using Valve's published odds model and current market prices. No items are created or traded. The long-run expected return of opening cases is negative — this page exists to show exactly how negative.

Recent opens

Latest community pulls from this container
UMP-45 | DelusionUMP-45 | DelusionFT 0.179$0.5710d agoFive-SeveN | Urban HazardST™Five-SeveN | Urban HazardFT 0.229$2.8310d agoUMP-45 | DelusionST™UMP-45 | DelusionFT 0.207$0.8810d agoFive-SeveN | Urban HazardFive-SeveN | Urban HazardFN 0.048$2.9510d agoFive-SeveN | Urban HazardFive-SeveN | Urban HazardMW 0.089$2.3710d agoUMP-45 | DelusionUMP-45 | DelusionFN 0.066$5.4410d agoUMP-45 | DelusionST™UMP-45 | DelusionFT 0.273$0.8810d agoUMP-45 | DelusionUMP-45 | DelusionFT 0.256$0.5710d agoSawed-Off | HighwaymanSawed-Off | HighwaymanBS 0.931$0.8010d agoFive-SeveN | Urban HazardFive-SeveN | Urban HazardFT 0.236$2.1110d agoFive-SeveN | Urban HazardFive-SeveN | Urban HazardFN 0.003$2.9510d agoMP9 | DartMP9 | DartFT 0.340$0.5310d ago

Drop odds

Odds follow Valve's published model — each rarity tier is roughly 5× rarer than the one below it, normalised over the grades this container can drop. Knife/glove specials, where present, take the gold tier.
Mil-Spec
79.92%
5 items · 1 in 1.25
Restricted
15.98%
4 items · 1 in 6
Classified
3.20%
3 items · 1 in 31
Covert
0.64%
2 items · 1 in 156
Rare Special Item
0.26%
65 items · 1 in 385
★Rare special items · 0.26%

Knife & glove types

★ Karambit★ M9 Bayonet★ Bayonet★ Flip Knife★ Gut Knife
Floor$32.84
Top item$1,296.00
items65
Karambit | Fade
Karambit
Fade
$1,296.00
Karambit | Vanilla
Karambit
Vanilla
$859.65
M9 Bayonet | Fade
M9 Bayonet
Fade
$758.71
Karambit | Slaughter
Karambit
Slaughter
$626.40
M9 Bayonet | Vanilla
M9 Bayonet
Vanilla
$612.40
Karambit | Blue Steel
Karambit
Blue Steel
$583.94
Karambit | Case Hardened
Karambit
Case Hardened
$576.67
M9 Bayonet | Slaughter
M9 Bayonet
Slaughter
$567.25
Karambit | Crimson Web
Karambit
Crimson Web
$499.00
Karambit | Stained
Karambit
Stained
$444.90
Karambit | Night
Karambit
Night
$414.25
M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel
M9 Bayonet
Blue Steel
$393.61
Covert · 2 items
Drop rate · 0.64%1 in 156
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel
AK-47
Wasteland Rebel
$69.55
P2000 | Fire Elemental
P2000
Fire Elemental
$63.70
Classified · 3 items
Drop rate · 3.20%1 in 31
P250 | Cartel
P250
Cartel
$7.89
XM1014 | Tranquility
XM1014
Tranquility
$7.22
SCAR-20 | Cardiac
SCAR-20
Cardiac
$6.93
Restricted · 4 items
Drop rate · 15.98%1 in 6
M4A1-S | Basilisk
M4A1-S
Basilisk
$6.25
M4A4 | Griffin
M4A4
Griffin
$2.32
Glock-18 | Grinder
Glock-18
Grinder
$1.90
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Sawed-Off
Highwayman
$0.73
Mil-Spec · 5 items
Drop rate · 79.92%1 in 1.25
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard
Five-SeveN
Urban Hazard
$1.87
G3SG1 | Murky
G3SG1
Murky
$0.51
UMP-45 | Delusion
UMP-45
Delusion
$0.51
MAG-7 | Firestarter
MAG-7
Firestarter
$0.45
MP9 | Dart
MP9
Dart
$0.44

Opening value

Expected return of a single opening — every wear, StatTrak and Doppler-phase outcome weighted by its drop odds at live market prices.
Cost per opening$6.35incl. $2.49 key
Expected return$3.34
Expected ROI−47.4%
Where the value comes from
Mil-Spec$0.92
Restricted$0.88
Rare Special Item$0.72
Covert$0.50
Classified$0.33