Container
Shadow Case
Current case price
$1.54−5.8%
Unbox simulator
Real odds, real sounds — zero real money
incl. $2.49 key
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Returned$0.00
Net+$0.00
Statistical simulation using Valve's published odds model and current market prices. No items are created or traded. The long-run expected return of opening cases is negative — this page exists to show exactly how negative.
Recent opens
Latest community pulls from this container
Drop odds
Odds follow Valve's published model — each rarity tier is roughly 5× rarer than the one below it, normalised over the grades this container can drop. Knife/glove specials, where present, take the gold tier.
Mil-Spec
79.92%
7 items · 1 in 1.25
Restricted
15.98%
4 items · 1 in 6
Classified
3.20%
3 items · 1 in 31
Covert
0.64%
2 items · 1 in 156
Rare Special Item
0.26%
13 items · 1 in 385
★Rare special items · 0.26%
Knife & glove types
★ Shadow Daggers
Floor$36.12
Top item$123.06
items13
Shadow Daggers
Fade
$123.06
Shadow Daggers
Slaughter
$87.50
Shadow Daggers
Case Hardened
$70.14
Shadow Daggers
Vanilla
$58.45
Shadow Daggers
Crimson Web
$58.10
Shadow Daggers
Stained
$49.98
Shadow Daggers
Blue Steel
$48.72
Shadow Daggers
Scorched
$40.18
Shadow Daggers
Night
$39.33
Shadow Daggers
Urban Masked
$39.19
Shadow Daggers
Boreal Forest
$37.52
Shadow Daggers
Forest DDPAT
$36.15
Covert · 2 items
Classified · 3 items
Restricted · 4 items
Mil-Spec · 7 items
Opening value
Expected return of a single opening — every wear, StatTrak and Doppler-phase outcome weighted by its drop odds at live market prices.
Cost per opening$4.03incl. $2.49 key
Expected return$1.92
Expected ROI−52.4%
Where the value comes from
Mil-Spec$0.47
Covert$0.46
Classified$0.46
Restricted$0.36
Rare Special Item$0.16