Container
Fracture Case
Current case price
$0.41+1.6%
Unbox simulator
Real odds, real sounds — zero real money
incl. $2.49 key
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Returned$0.00
Net+$0.00
Statistical simulation using Valve's published odds model and current market prices. No items are created or traded. The long-run expected return of opening cases is negative — this page exists to show exactly how negative.
Recent opens
Latest community pulls from this container
Drop odds
Odds follow Valve's published model — each rarity tier is roughly 5× rarer than the one below it, normalised over the grades this container can drop. Knife/glove specials, where present, take the gold tier.
Mil-Spec
79.92%
7 items · 1 in 1.25
Restricted
15.98%
5 items · 1 in 6
Classified
3.20%
3 items · 1 in 31
Covert
0.64%
2 items · 1 in 156
Rare Special Item
0.26%
52 items · 1 in 385
★Rare special items · 0.26%
Knife & glove types
★ Skeleton Knife★ Nomad Knife★ Paracord Knife★ Survival Knife
Floor$36.08
Top item$470.19
items52
Skeleton Knife
Fade
$470.19
Skeleton Knife
Slaughter
$327.60
Nomad Knife
Fade
$254.73
Skeleton Knife
Crimson Web
$216.92
Skeleton Knife
Vanilla
$212.10
Nomad Knife
Slaughter
$195.99
Skeleton Knife
Case Hardened
$181.43
Skeleton Knife
Blue Steel
$177.66
Skeleton Knife
Stained
$154.00
Nomad Knife
Crimson Web
$130.06
Nomad Knife
Case Hardened
$129.60
Paracord Knife
Fade
$126.55
Covert · 2 items
Classified · 3 items
Restricted · 5 items
Mil-Spec · 7 items
Opening value
Expected return of a single opening — every wear, StatTrak and Doppler-phase outcome weighted by its drop odds at live market prices.
Cost per opening$2.90incl. $2.49 key
Expected return$0.81
Expected ROI−72.1%
Where the value comes from
Rare Special Item$0.29
Covert$0.22
Classified$0.14
Restricted$0.09
Mil-Spec$0.07