Container
Operation Wildfire Case
Current case price
$2.85−32.2%
Unbox simulator
Real odds, real sounds — zero real money
incl. $2.49 key
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Returned$0.00
Net+$0.00
Statistical simulation using Valve's published odds model and current market prices. No items are created or traded. The long-run expected return of opening cases is negative — this page exists to show exactly how negative.
Recent opens
Latest community pulls from this container
Drop odds
Odds follow Valve's published model — each rarity tier is roughly 5× rarer than the one below it, normalised over the grades this container can drop. Knife/glove specials, where present, take the gold tier.
Mil-Spec
79.92%
6 items · 1 in 1.25
Restricted
15.98%
5 items · 1 in 6
Classified
3.20%
3 items · 1 in 31
Covert
0.64%
2 items · 1 in 156
Rare Special Item
0.26%
13 items · 1 in 385
★Rare special items · 0.26%
Knife & glove types
★ Bowie Knife
Floor$41.43
Top item$181.93
items13
Bowie Knife
Fade
$181.93
Bowie Knife
Slaughter
$155.68
Bowie Knife
Case Hardened
$105.34
Bowie Knife
Crimson Web
$92.40
Bowie Knife
Vanilla
$79.80
Bowie Knife
Blue Steel
$76.72
Bowie Knife
Stained
$59.40
Bowie Knife
Night
$49.97
Bowie Knife
Urban Masked
$48.02
Bowie Knife
Scorched
$45.78
Bowie Knife
Forest DDPAT
$45.05
Bowie Knife
Boreal Forest
$42.97
Covert · 2 items
Classified · 3 items
Restricted · 5 items
Mil-Spec · 6 items
Opening value
Expected return of a single opening — every wear, StatTrak and Doppler-phase outcome weighted by its drop odds at live market prices.
Cost per opening$5.34incl. $2.49 key
Expected return$2.84
Expected ROI−46.8%
Where the value comes from
Mil-Spec$0.85
Restricted$0.63
Classified$0.57
Covert$0.55
Rare Special Item$0.24