Container
Operation Wildfire Case
Current case price
$2.11−4.6%
Unbox simulator
Real odds, real sounds — zero real money
incl. $2.49 key
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Returned$0.00
Net+$0.00
Statistical simulation using Valve's published odds model and current market prices. No items are created or traded. The long-run expected return of opening cases is negative — this page exists to show exactly how negative.
Recent opens
Latest community pulls from this container
Drop odds
Odds follow Valve's published model — each rarity tier is roughly 5× rarer than the one below it, normalised over the grades this container can drop. Knife/glove specials, where present, take the gold tier.
Mil-Spec
79.92%
6 items · 1 in 1.25
Restricted
15.98%
5 items · 1 in 6
Classified
3.20%
3 items · 1 in 31
Covert
0.64%
2 items · 1 in 156
Rare Special Item
0.26%
13 items · 1 in 385
★Rare special items · 0.26%
Knife & glove types
★ Bowie Knife
Floor$38.00
Top item$165.76
items13
Bowie Knife
Fade
$165.76
Bowie Knife
Slaughter
$140.00
Bowie Knife
Case Hardened
$96.83
Bowie Knife
Crimson Web
$83.17
Bowie Knife
Blue Steel
$70.31
Bowie Knife
Vanilla
$63.49
Bowie Knife
Stained
$57.47
Bowie Knife
Night
$48.60
Bowie Knife
Urban Masked
$44.29
Bowie Knife
Scorched
$42.74
Bowie Knife
Safari Mesh
$40.67
Bowie Knife
Boreal Forest
$40.32
Covert · 2 items
Classified · 3 items
Restricted · 5 items
Mil-Spec · 6 items
Opening value
Expected return of a single opening — every wear, StatTrak and Doppler-phase outcome weighted by its drop odds at live market prices.
Cost per opening$4.60incl. $2.49 key
Expected return$2.32
Expected ROI−49.6%
Where the value comes from
Mil-Spec$0.65
Restricted$0.51
Classified$0.49
Covert$0.46
Rare Special Item$0.21