Container
Falchion Case
Current case price
$1.34−5.9%
Unbox simulator
Real odds, real sounds — zero real money
incl. $2.49 key
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Returned$0.00
Net+$0.00
Statistical simulation using Valve's published odds model and current market prices. No items are created or traded. The long-run expected return of opening cases is negative — this page exists to show exactly how negative.
Recent opens
Latest community pulls from this container
Drop odds
Odds follow Valve's published model — each rarity tier is roughly 5× rarer than the one below it, normalised over the grades this container can drop. Knife/glove specials, where present, take the gold tier.
Mil-Spec
79.92%
6 items · 1 in 1.25
Restricted
15.98%
5 items · 1 in 6
Classified
3.20%
3 items · 1 in 31
Covert
0.64%
2 items · 1 in 156
Rare Special Item
0.26%
13 items · 1 in 385
★Rare special items · 0.26%
Knife & glove types
★ Falchion Knife
Floor$45.82
Top item$183.60
items13
Falchion Knife
Fade
$183.60
Falchion Knife
Slaughter
$165.76
Falchion Knife
Case Hardened
$112.14
Falchion Knife
Crimson Web
$97.86
Falchion Knife
Vanilla
$93.51
Falchion Knife
Blue Steel
$92.88
Falchion Knife
Stained
$63.04
Falchion Knife
Night
$57.18
Falchion Knife
Urban Masked
$55.64
Falchion Knife
Boreal Forest
$49.98
Falchion Knife
Scorched
$49.38
Falchion Knife
Safari Mesh
$47.32
Covert · 2 items
Classified · 3 items
Restricted · 5 items
Mil-Spec · 6 items
Opening value
Expected return of a single opening — every wear, StatTrak and Doppler-phase outcome weighted by its drop odds at live market prices.
Cost per opening$3.83incl. $2.49 key
Expected return$1.67
Expected ROI−56.4%
Where the value comes from
Mil-Spec$0.61
Restricted$0.33
Covert$0.26
Rare Special Item$0.25
Classified$0.22